Publications
“Strategic Ignorance and the Perceived Efficacy of Taking Action” (with Anca Balietti , Tillman Eymess, and Alice Solda), conditionally accepted at the Economic Journal.
[Working paper: here]
[Blogpost: here]
Abstract: When useful information is distressing, it may deliberately be ignored. In this paper, we examine both theoretically and experimentally whether increasing perceived efficacy — the belief that one’s actions can influence an outcome — reduces such strategic ignorance. Participants in India are given the choice to receive or avoid information about the average loss in life expectancy due to air pollution in their district and are later asked to recall it. We find that increasing perceived efficacy significantly improved recall, particularly among participants with optimistic prior beliefs. The pattern is confirmed when conducting the same experiment in the United States. Our theoretical framework highlights how perceived efficacy shapes the interplay between anticipatory and realized utility, thereby influencing strategic ignorance.
“Broken Promises – Evaluating an Incomplete Startup Business Program” (with Utz Pape and Laura Ralston), accepted at the World Bank Economic Review.
[Working Paper: here]
Abstract: This study examines the socio-economic, behavioral, and psychological consequences of a terminated business loan program in South Sudan on intended beneficiaries. While all participants received business training, only some were able to obtain the promised loan before the program was canceled due to renewed conflict. We combine data from face-to-face interviews and data from
lab experiments to examine outcomes one year after the program’s cancellation. Results from LATE estimations show that those participants who failed to receive the loan display significant declines in consumption. Moreover, this group exhibits a significant reduction in trust, particularly trust in institutions. Our results highlight that more attention should be given to the detrimental effects of implementation failures.
“Democracy and Aid Donorship” (with Andreas Fuchs), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13(4): 217-238, November 2021.
[Replication files: here]
[Blogpost: here]
Abstract: Almost half of the world’s states provide bilateral development assistance. While previous research takes the set of donor countries as exogenous, this article introduces a new dataset on aid giving covering all countries in the world, both rich and poor, and explores the determinants of aid donorship. It argues and shows empirically that democratic institutions support the setup of an aid program in richer countries but undermine its establishment in poorer countries. The findings hold in instrumental-variable regressions and the pattern is similar for the amount of aid.
Working Papers
“Air Pollution and Behavioral Responses to Income Status” (with Anca Balietti and Tillman Eymess), under review.
[Working paper: here]
Abstract: This paper examines how perceived income status shapes individual behavioral responses to air pollution, holding actual income constant. In a randomized online experiment with 1,253 adults in India, participants are informed about their position in the state-level income distribution. Given the widespread underestimation of income rank, the information treatment shifts perceived status upward on average. This increase in perceived rank lowers reported health concerns about air pollution, reduces intended adoption of private protective measures, and decreases support for public mitigation, as measured by real-stakes contributions to environmental NGOs. These findings show that perceptions of income status alter the relative value individuals place on health versus consumption, shaping both private adaptation and support for collective environmental action.
“Move on up – Electrification and Internal Migration in Nigeria”
[Working paper: here]
Abstract: This study uses the large scale roll-out of electric transmission infrastructure in Nigeria from 2009 to 2015 to quantify the effect of electrification on internal migration. I address endogenous location of electricity infrastructure by estimating effects on peripheral households not directly targeted by the policy in combination with instrumenting for the actual grid path by a hypothetical least cost grid. Results show an increase in individual migration propensity by 6 percent and a reduction of household size by 0.8 individuals, mainly driven by young adults and older teenagers. This result can be explained by an increased access to credit due with a coinciding lack of employment generation for the younger sub-population. Results from a gravity model of migration show a reduction in the elasticity of migration with respect to movement costs and a rise in migration to rural, electrified destinations following the electricity supply shock.The effect is driven by young adults and older teenagers. Theoretically, this result can be explained by rising household incomes with a coinciding lack of employment generation for this sub-population. Results from a gravity model of migration show a reduction in movement costs and a rise in migration to rural, electrified destinations following the electricity supply shock.
Collected Works
“BRICS and Foreign Aid” (with Gerda Asmus and Andreas Fuchs) in The World Scientific Reference on the Economies of the BRICS Countries (edited by Soo Yoon Kim), World Scientific, January 2020.
[Working Paper Version: AidData Working Paper 43, August 2017]
“Political Economy of Emerging Donors” (with Axel Dreher) in Encyclopedia of Public Choice (edited by Richard Jong-A-Pin and Christian Bjornskov), Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, forthcoming.
Work in Progress
“Fostering Climate Resilience: Socio-Economic Effects of Improved Urban Drainage in Bangladesh” (with Cristina Cibin, Khalid Imran, Robin Möllerherm, and Jingke Pan), endline data collected.
“Climate Change Information and Preferences for Migration” (with Cristina Cibin, Khalid Imran, Robin Möllerherm, and Jingke Pan), pilot data collected.
“FloodConnect: Understanding Connectivity Disruptions in a Changing Climate”